Bobby Kennedy's On The Ballot - Party Time in New York?
Bobby Kennedy's On The Ballot - Party Time in New York?
RFK Jr. Submits Record Signatures; Can Secure Independent NY Ballot Line With Strong Presidential Showing
By Dick LaFontaine and Richard Luthmann
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign announced Tuesday's historic achievement: It submitted 135,519 signatures to gain ballot access in New York. This number, triple the required 45,000 amount, is the highest ever submitted by a presidential candidate in the state. Volunteers delivered more than 70 volumes of signatures to the New York State Board of Elections office at 40 North Pearl Street in Albany.
Monumental Grassroots Effort
"The scale of this grassroots effort is monumental and proves our ground game's strength," said Will Boothby, Kennedy campaign northeast regional field director. "In six weeks, we held two rallies, a college bus tour, and hundreds of local events. More than 900 volunteers from all 63 counties stepped up for this historic effort."
Kennedy's candidacy, seen as a wildcard in the 2024 presidential election, has attracted independents and voters disillusioned with the major parties. His inclusion on the New York ballot could disrupt the state's electoral politics if he garners significant support.
"The State of New York has stacked the deck against independent candidates in every way possible," Boothby added. "This makes our achievement even more remarkable."
New York has stringent rules: complex document requirements, congressional district signature thresholds, manual validation of all signatures, strict residency tests, a short six-week petitioning window, and one of the highest signature thresholds in the nation.
Despite these challenges, the Kennedy campaign succeeded in the state where Robert F. Kennedy Jr. began his environmental career cleaning up the Hudson River, and his father was once elected U.S. Senator.
A Family Legacy
Bobby Kennedy’s father, Robert Francis Kennedy, was an American politician and lawyer. He served as the 64th United States attorney general from January 1961 to September 1964 and as a U.S. senator from New York from January 1965 until his assassination in June 1968, when he was running for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Like his uncles, President John F. Kennedy and U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy, his father was a prominent member of the Democratic Party and an icon of modern American liberalism.
In the past decade, Bobby Kennedy has become a prominent voice in the anti-vaccine movement, promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories about the risks of childhood vaccinations and other public health measures. That work gave him a prominent platform during the coronavirus pandemic when he questioned the safety of COVID-19 vaccines and the official narratives of the virus’s origins.
In keeping with his family’s political legacy, Kennedy was a lifelong Democrat, and when he entered the race in April 2023, he sought to challenge Joe Biden for the party’s nomination. Six months later, he announced his run as an independent. The Democrats had corruptly blocked his efforts, he said.
Campaigning for a Third Option
"This accomplishment shows the strength of our movement," said Emma Diment, Kennedy campaign field digital director. "We've talked with hundreds of thousands of New York voters who want a third option this November."
Kennedy's campaign has set an aggressive ballot access plan to ensure the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket appears in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The campaign has raised over $15 million to support this effort.
The Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is officially on the ballot in seven states: Utah, Michigan, California, Delaware, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and Texas. They have also collected enough signatures for ballot access in nine more states: New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, New Jersey, and now New York.
"Getting 'Bobby on the Ballot' in my home state is one of the greatest achievements of my life," said New York volunteer Tammi Palmeri. "I understand what's at stake for our country, and I'm grateful there's a candidate I believe in."
The Kennedy-Shanahan campaign collected the needed signatures for ballot access in 16 states, totaling 229 electoral votes, 43% of the 538 electoral votes.
Distinguishing from Major Parties and Facing Staunch Opposition
Bobby Kennedy sets himself apart from President Biden and former President Trump. On May 1, his campaign released a Zogby poll showing Kennedy leading Biden and Trump in head-to-head matchups. This makes Kennedy the first independent to defeat both major party candidates in such polls.
Kennedy focuses on independence from the traditional political machine. He appeals to voters frustrated with the status quo. He emphasizes his environmental achievements and stance on social issues to distinguish himself.
"Our campaign gives Americans a real choice," Kennedy said at a recent rally. "People are tired of the same old politics. They want change and a leader who isn't beholden to special interests."
Kennedy's approach strongly focuses on environmental policies, reflecting his long history of activism. He also advocates for healthcare and education reforms to address the needs of everyday Americans.
Democrats, who once ignored third-party candidates, now see Kennedy as a significant threat to Biden’s re-election. Super PACs aim to crush third-party candidates. Democratic Party donors fund legal efforts to keep him off the ballot.
Kennedy’s strength in polls, especially after naming Silicon Valley philanthropist Nicole Shanahan as his running mate, has alarmed Democrats. Shanahan, a former Democratic donor, announced she was leaving the Democratic Party, inviting others to join her. This signals Kennedy's leftward positioning in the campaign.
Democrats are worried about Kennedy attracting low-propensity voters, including young people and young men of color, who are only marginally attached to the Democratic Party. Even a few defections from Biden's 2020 coalition could tip a critical state against the president in 2024, jeopardizing his narrow path to victory.
“[I]t has been easy to convince people that this is a challenge and potential problem that needs to be taken seriously,” said Pete Kavanaugh, a former Biden 2020 deputy campaign manager.
Kavanaugh now runs the Democrat Super PAC Clear Choice, which is dedicated to stopping third-party candidates through research, messaging, and "ballot access accountability." In reality, the entity’s work product is “denied ballot access” by exploiting mistakes “non-sanctioned” candidates make in gathering and submitting petition signatures.
Democrats have previously fought third-party candidates, such as former Green Party nominee Ralph Nader in 2004 and Kanye West in 2020. However, they have never had a well-funded national strategy like the current one to combat third-party candidates. Kennedy, an apostate from the most famous Democratic family in America, is a particularly appealing target for donors.
“He’s got a famous last name, he’s showing up in the numbers, and many have had personal interactions with him in the past, so there is significant interest in making sure these programs are funded,” Kavanaugh said.
Future Forward, a pro-Biden super PAC, which raised over $150 million in 2020, may also tamp down third-party support, according to reports.
Democrats aren’t alone in elbowing Kennedy. Former President Trump called him “radical left” at the NRA Annual Meeting earlier this month. Though Trump said he would be open to including RFK, Jr., in two upcoming debates between him and President Biden
With a well-funded campaign and a message resonating with many disaffected voters, Kennedy's presence on the ballot could significantly influence the electoral dynamics in several states. Kennedy could send shockwaves through New York politics.
Impact on New York's Political Landscape
The Kennedy-Shanahan campaign's success in New York is a significant milestone. If Bobby Kennedy performs well in New York, it could signal a shift in the state's political landscape, traditionally dominated by Democrats.
"The grassroots energy behind this campaign is unlike anything I've seen," said volunteer coordinator Jane Thompson. "People from all walks of life are coming together to support Bobby because they believe in his vision for the country."
Many believe Bobby Kennedy can break the two-party system.
"Voters are looking for an alternative," said political analyst Mark Reynolds. "Kennedy's campaign is tapping into a deep well of frustration with the two-party system. If he can maintain this momentum, he could significantly influence the outcome of the election."
Unbeknownst to many, Kennedy may have just done that in the Empire State. Secured ballot access makes him an independent “Kingmaker” in New York politics in 2025 and 2026.
Under amendments to the New York Election Law effective April 3, 2020, a political organization qualifies as a party if its candidate for governor or president receives at least 130,000 votes or 2 percent of the total votes cast in the most recent presidential or gubernatorial election. Since New York gubernatorial elections are off-cycle from presidential elections, this definition requires existing parties to requalify every two years.
If Bobby Kennedy gets 130,000 votes for President in New York State, his supporters could seize an independent ballot line and endorse candidates throughout New York State in significant elections like the 2025 NYC Mayoral and 2026 Gubenatorial Races. With the state’s “fusion voting” system, all votes on the “Team Kennedy” line would be added to the vote totals for a candidate that simultaneously appears on another party’s label.
John Tabacco, a media personality and former New York State Reform Party Vice Chairman, signed a Bobby Kennedy petition. He is excited at the prospects of another ballot line in New York State.
“Any government intervention, federal or state, aimed at restricting ballot access is the enemy of democracy. The voters deserve more choices, not less. Whether it’s Bobby Kennedy or Donald Trump, ballot access should be available for all,” Tabacco said.
Other New York politicos believe Kennedy’s potential influence is overstated.
“He still needs 135,000 signatures to stick and then 130,000 votes on Election Day. And if you think Bobby Kennedy will be a New York ‘Kingmaker,’ then maybe you’ve eaten the worm,” said a well known Manhattan Democratic consultant speaking under conditions of anonymity.
Looking Ahead
As the Kennedy campaign continues to build its presence nationwide, the focus remains on engaging voters and expanding ballot access. Kennedy's team is determined to ensure his name is on every November ballot.
"The fight for ballot access is just the beginning," said campaign digital director Emma Diment. "Our ultimate goal is to bring real change to Washington and give the American people the representation they deserve."
With the submission of record-breaking signatures in New York, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cemented his position as a serious contender in the 2024 presidential race. As the election approaches, all eyes will be on how his campaign shapes the political landscape in this year’s general election and beyond.
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