By Richard Luthmann
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who entered the 2024 presidential race as a Democrat before switching to run as an independent, has announced the suspension of his campaign. In a surprising move and seeing no path to the Oval Office, he effectively endorsed Donald Trump for president. This decision could significantly impact the race, especially in battleground states.
Kennedy, son of former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy, had gained a following among anti-establishment voters and vaccine skeptics. His campaign initially showed promise, attracting supporters disillusioned with both major parties. However, in recent months, his momentum slowed due to financial challenges and legal issues, including a ruling from a New York judge barring him from the ballot over a “sham” address on his nominating petitions.
Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump is expected to shift a large portion of his supporters to the former president. Political analysts predict that as many as three out of four RFK Jr. voters will now back Trump, potentially giving Trump a 5% boost in key battleground states.
Behind-the-Scenes Talks Lead to Endorsement
In the weeks leading up to his announcement, Kennedy’s campaign engaged in behind-the-scenes discussions with Trump’s team. Both campaigns have spent months accusing Democrats of weaponizing the legal system. They have also hinted at a possible alliance, with the shared goal of limiting the election chances of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Last month, during the Republican National Convention, Kennedy’s son posted and quickly deleted a video showing a phone call between Kennedy and Trump. In the call, Trump appeared to urge Kennedy to side with him. Talks between the two camps continued, with close Trump allies quietly lobbying Kennedy to drop out and support the Republican nominee.
In an interview with CNN, Trump expressed his admiration for Kennedy, calling him a “brilliant guy” and saying he would “love” an endorsement from him. Trump also said he would be open to Kennedy playing a role in his administration if he dropped out and endorsed him.
Kennedy’s Running Mate Suggested Possible Alliance
Kennedy’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, added fuel to the speculation earlier this week when she suggested on a podcast that their campaign might “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump.” Although she clarified that she was not personally in talks with Trump, she entertained the idea of Kennedy joining Trump’s administration as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services.
“I think that Bobby in a role like that would be excellent,” Shanahan said. “I fully support it. I have high hopes.”
Kennedy’s Campaign Fades Amid Challenges
Kennedy Jr. first entered the 2024 race as a Democrat but left the party last fall to run as an independent. He built a strong base for a third-party bid, fueled in part by anti-establishment voters and those skeptical of vaccines, a cause he has championed since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, his campaign faced challenges as it progressed. His finances became strained, and legal issues mounted, including the recent ruling from a New York judge that he should not appear on the ballot due to a “sham” address on his nominating petitions.
Recent polls showed his support in the mid-single digits, far from the numbers needed to make a serious impact in the general election. Third-party candidates have historically struggled to live up to their early poll numbers when voters cast their ballots.
Impact on Trump and Harris
There is evidence that Kennedy staying in the race would have hurt Trump more than Harris. A July poll by AP-NORC showed Republicans were significantly more likely than Democrats to have a favorable view of Kennedy. Those with a positive impression of Kennedy were also significantly more likely to have a favorable view of Trump (52%) than Harris (37%).
For Trump, Kennedy’s endorsement could be a game-changer. It might deliver him the extra votes needed to edge out Harris in crucial battleground states. Some analysts believe this could give Trump a 5% bump in those states, which could be decisive in the election.
On the other hand, Harris’ campaign has expressed confidence in winning over Kennedy’s supporters. In an interview with MSNBC at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris’ communications director, Michael Tyler, said her campaign welcomes Kennedy voters if the independent candidate drops out.
“For voters who see Trump as a threat, who are looking for a new way forward, or who want government to get the hell out of the way of their own personal decisions, there’s a home for you in Kamala Harris’ campaign,” Tyler said.
Trump Focuses on Battleground States
As Kennedy announced his endorsement, Trump was wrapping up a week of visits to battleground states. His campaign events focused on the economy, crime and safety, national security, and the border. Trump traveled to Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona’s U.S.-Mexico border, with plans to close out the week with stops in Las Vegas and Glendale.
Trump’s strategy has drawn attention away from the Democrats’ celebration of Harris’ presidential nomination in Chicago. With Kennedy now backing Trump, the former president hopes to capitalize on the shift in voter support to bolster his chances in the 2024 election.
Looking Ahead
Kennedy’s decision to end his campaign and endorse Trump is a significant development in the 2024 presidential race. It could reshape the contest's dynamics, particularly in battleground states where a 4% shift could be decisive. As Trump continues his campaign, Kennedy's endorsement may prove to be a pivotal moment that helps him secure a second term in the White House.
RFK Jr. Suspends Campaign, Backs Trump— 2024 Race Shifts in Trump's Favor?